NBA Reproductive Analysis Project

Champions: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998
Conference Titles: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998
Division Titles: 1975, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2011, 2012

What Drives A Team’s Success On The Court?

Our ability to score points in basketball is the single most defining factor in winning and losing. It may sound simple, but score more points than the opposition, you win. Success in basketball is driven purely through our Win/Loss record.

If we look at the two graphs above, you’ll see that we can clearly see a relationship between the desired ratings. (Higher for offensive, and lower for defensive). Our rating in offence/defence was 104.8/113.2 respectively.

Last season we finished with a losing record of 22 wins and 60 losses, the 27th best record in the league and the second worst offensively rated side. The most successful teams in 2018-19 all had stellar offensive ratings. Defensive rating, while not as important as its offensive counterpart, can also provide a strong indication of a team’s W-L record.

According to those figures, offensively we won as many games as we were expected, but underperformed comparing to our expected win rate based solely on defence. It’s easy to think, that because we won less than expected, the way to move forward and win, is to score and improve our offensive side. Scoring more points, takes the pressure off the defence and reduces our Net Rating closer to 0.

selected_player_pg <- pg %>%
  filter(player_name == "D'Angelo Russell") # Filter for the chosen PG

selected_player_pg_2 <- pg %>%
  filter(player_name == "Kemba Walker") # Filter for the chosen PG

selected_pg <- bind_rows(selected_player_pg, selected_player_pg_2) # Combine the two selected PG players for a comparison to make a final decision. 

selected_player_sg <- sg %>%
  filter(player_name == "Donovan Mitchell") # Filter for the chosen SG

selected_player_sg_2 <- sg %>%
  filter(player_name == "Devin Booker") # Filter for the chosen SG

selected_sg <- bind_rows(selected_player_sg, selected_player_sg_2) # Combine the two selected SG players for a comparison to make a final decision. 

selected_player_sf <- sf %>%
  filter(player_name == "Kevin Durant") # Filter for the chosen SF

selected_player_sf_2 <- sf %>%
  filter(player_name == "Kawhi Leonard") # Filter for the chosen SF

selected_sf <- bind_rows(selected_player_sf, selected_player_sf_2) # Combine the two selected SF players for a comparison to make a final decision. 

selected_player_pf <- pf %>%
  filter(player_name == "Giannis Antetokounmpo") # Filter for the chosen PF

selected_player_pf_2 <- pf %>%
  filter(player_name == "Julius Randle") # Filter for the chosen PF

selected_pf <- bind_rows(selected_player_pf, selected_player_pf_2) # Combine the two selected PF players for a comparison to make a final decision. 

selected_player_c <- centres %>%
  filter(player_name == "Karl-Anthony Towns") # Filter for the chosen C

Each Basket Type Relating to Total Player Points

Points = 3-Point FG + 2-Point FG + Free Throw

Being able to identify which basket type plays a bigger role in basketball, its clear to see that a 3-Point basket is worth more, because if we relate to our previous comment.

More Points = More Wins

In the three graphs below, describe the relationship each type of basket has with the total points that player scored. If a player connects with 200 x 3 point baskets, the linear result is estimated approx 1400 points. When we compare that to a player making 200 x 2 point baskets, the estimated result is approx 750. That’s a large differential in any sense of the word. 82 game season and approx a 650 point difference, which is 8 points per game.

Considering most games are decided by under 5 points, that is a huge advantage if we can find players successfully making 3 point baskets. The clear observation here is finding efficient ball shooters, regardless if that is from beyond the 3 point arc or inside the paint or having the ability to get to the free throw line. Efficiency is key, as that’ll allow our team to rate higher offensively, which we have seen in previous graphs that a high offensive rating is directly linked to increasing our winning potential.

Current Player Performance Breakdown

I have broken down the competition in the next 3 particular graphs to show their Salary for the 2018-2019 season plotted alongside their 2018-2019 Points Per Game Average, their Rebounds Per Game Average and their Assists Per Game Average. . The graph has each position colour coordinated so we can identify particular player position requirements. However, it is important. To quickly breakdown what we want from each position in an easy to understand way.

Point Guard must be able to pass the ball to find open players for assists. As a basic rule, they themselves must have scoring potential. To find an elite ball user is important to create a better team balance.

Shooting Guard can play similar role to our Point Guard, however, he must be a good 3 point shooter. We need to be able to space out the defence to create easier shots outside, and open the lane on the inside.

Small Forward will be our versatile player, who can do everything and do it well. It will become obvious why this is important, but the Franchise Player of the Chicago Bulls will be a Small Forward.

Power Forward I believe is key needs to be able to score inside, and be able to bring down the rebounds defensively and offensively, and what is now becoming the trend in the NBA, our Power Forward will need to be able to put up and make 3 point baskets if required.

Centre dominate inside, our main defensive post and our rebounding power. Must block shots and get rebounds, otherwise, we’ll find a reliable smaller player and play small ball.

As you’ll see in the graphs, the dotted lines along the X-axis and Y-axis create 4 quadrants that divide the competition.

1. Performing above the average and paid under our affordability range.

2. Performing above the average and paid over our affordability range.

3. Performing under the average and paid under our affordability range.

4. Performing under the average and paid over our affordability range.

In wanting to find the best available player and be able to afford these 5 starting players, without blowing our budget, we’ll be focusing our attention to the first quandant performing above the average and paid under our affordability range.

Player Points Predictions by Position

Let’s break it down, position by position to allow us to see our positional scoring leaders and the predicted points each player will score next season. When we add in the salaries to the equation again, you’ll be able to identify clearly who the players we are going to be targeting are.

Point Guard

Clearly James Harden is the leader in not only the Point Guard Position, but as a star of the competition, however, this analysis allows us to identify players like Kemba Walker, D’Angelo Russell, Trae Young who can have big impacts at a fraction of James Harden’s cost, while still having the overall impact as the likes of Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving and Mike Conley

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal had a breakout season last year and is now the premier Shooting Guard, but he comes at a cost. Young players who have stepped into the game and dominated consistently across 2-4 seasons do not command the same price tag as Bradley, their output may not be on the same level, but the cost margin to predicted output is beneficial to us rebuilding our starting 5. Here we can look at Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell and Buddy Heild as a cheaper but equally productive option.

Small Forward

The position most desirable by all teams. There aren’t enough Kevin Durant and Lebron James running around in the league, and is evident by this breakdown, the cheaper players are indeed a long way off the level of these league leaders. By playing the moneybag game across 3-4 starting positions, it allows us the opportunity to sign a Franchise Player, something that must be considered to improve our offensive rating. With no cheap prospect performing to an extremely high level, we can settle for a player like Khris Middleton or Jayson Tatum, or we can go for the stars and use our salary cap on the likes of Kevin Durant or Paul George.

Power Forward

A group of 4 have identified their position as premier big men in the competition and from there we’ll be able to target the cheaper alternative than the clear choice of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Julius Randle and Tobias Harris stand out above the rest benefitting from a lower salary with good offensive production. Their defensive stats will be what differentiates them.

Centres

Much like the results from the Power Forward section, the Centres have a clear group standing out above the rest, and what is interesting is that they are generally not paid highly compared to the other positions as a very generalised rule. This can be where we can make a huge step forward by taking a cheap centre who’s output goes way beyond their worth.

Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s our target

Point Guard

Point Guard: Kemba Walker

The player to target after this analysis, is Kemba Walker. An elite scoring Point Guard who has the ability to pass the ball to his teammates. A durable player, who played all 82 games last season, comes at a cost of $12,000,000 for the season. He shoots at average 43% across the board, which is elite and has a 2 Point Percentage of 49.4% for the season. This offensive powerhouse averaged 25/6/4 last season, players with that output and at that price are rare. We need to seize this opportunity to attract a dominant Point Guard in Kemba Walker.

Shooting Guard

Shooting Guard: Donovan Mitchll

Donovan Mitchell is the ideal Shooting Guard who can play the back up Point Guard role extremely well. His ability to be versatile in shooting, passing and also gathering rebounds is important in the make-up of our team. Averaging an assist and a rebound every 10 minutes on the floor is an impressive stat and with a salary of $3,111,480 it is a small price to pay for the star’s averages of 23/4/4.

Small Forward

Small Forward: Kevin Durant

Invest, spend and forget. That is the mantra to take with selecting Kevin Durant as our starting Small Forward. The All-Star comes with a price tag of $30,000,000 but with the small investment on Donovan Mitchell and the remaining two starters, the salary squeeze is not as hard felt. Kevin is our offensive juggernaut, who’ll increase our Offensive Rating by a considerable margin. It’s important to note, that we are 9 rating points behind the mean, this is something that Kevin will impact greatly and it’ll benefit the whole Chicago Bulls organisation. He shoots at an overall percentage of 52.1%, a player like this can change the future of an organisation.

Do not forget… More Points = More Wins. This man does this and more.

Power Forward

Power Forward: Julius Randle

We discussed how the Power Forward must be able to shoot the 3 pointer if required. Julius Randle fits the mould of the prototype new age Power Forward. He shoots the ball well from beyond the arc at 34.4%, and as an overall shooting percentage of 52.4%. He defends well, recording a block every 1.5 games with a similar rate in steals. His rebounding is what sets his defence up, recording nearly 9 rebounds a game on average.

His production is below that of Giannis and Blake Griffin, but his price tage is astonishingly lower at $8,641,000. This shrewd saving and investment is the reason why Kevin Durant becomes available to our organisation.

He only started in 49 of a possible 73 games last season, so his potential to increase his averages is extremely possible as his Points, Rebounds Blocks Per Minute rate is substantially higher than players in the Power Forward position.

Centre

Centre: Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns was the eaisest selection to make. He is the dominant Centre in the league, leading in many areas. The price tag on him does not reflect his output. To receive a player of his talent and results that’ll only cost $7,839,435 is too good an option to not select. Averages a block every 20 minutes on the floor, close to a point a minute as well as averaging a rebound every 2 minutes is incredible and his talent far outweighs his price tag.

As was evident in the graphs above, he perfectly situated in the desired quadrant of output against production.

Overall, our team above will be offensively superior to many teams. Our offensive rating, if as predicted remains the same with the current team, we’ll be unable to challenge for a spot in the playoffs. With these changes, would we not only be challenging for that top 8 spot, we can be considered a legitimate Championship calibre team if our offense delivers what the predictions and the algorithms believe to be a true reflection of their potential.